Archive

Every day at 17:00 UTC an observer/forecaster on duty at SPS issued a probabilistic flare forecast for three solar flare classes C, M and X. These flare classes are defined according the peak of the flux of soft X-ray radiation produced by the flare. The forecast consist of two parts: full disk per visible active regions. Full disc flare forecast then combines the probabilities of flare occurence in visible active regions into a one global forecast. The forecast is human generated and is valid for next 24 hours from the time of issue. This product provides: percentual probabilities of flares occurence (C/M/X classes) for full disc; for active regions NOAA number (NOAA no.), NOAA location, SPS internal archive number (Ondřejov no.), Ondřejov location, percentual flare probabilities (C/M/X classes).

Data in the archive are available from January 01, 2022.

Start: End:

Date and time of observation: 2026-03-05 06:29 UTC
Issued: 2026-03-05 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 5
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 88
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
99 35 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N16W18@2026-03-05 04:30 UTC 036 N16W21@2026-03-05 06:29 UTC 45 20 5
4381 N08E13@2026-03-05 04:30 UTC 039 N07E07@2026-03-05 06:29 UTC 85 30 10
4383 N15W58@2026-03-05 04:30 UTC 041 N14W52@2026-03-05 06:29 UTC 30 5 1
4384 N09E37@2026-03-05 04:30 UTC 042 N09E32@2026-03-05 06:29 UTC 99 35 10
4385 S08E28@2026-03-05 04:30 UTC 043 S08E26@2026-03-05 06:29 UTC 40 15 5

Date and time of observation: 2026-03-04 07:53 UTC
Issued: 2026-03-04 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 2
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 44
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
99 40 15

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N15W07@2026-03-04 08:30 UTC 036 N16W08@2026-03-04 07:53 UTC 60 3 5
4381 N08E25@2026-03-04 08:30 UTC 039 N07E19@2026-03-04 07:53 UTC 95 35 15
4384 N10E48@2026-03-04 08:30 UTC 042 N09E44@2026-03-04 07:53 UTC 99 40 15

Date and time of observation: 2026-03-03 06:38 UTC
Issued: 2026-03-03 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 5
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 96
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
99 40 15

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N15E10@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 036 N16E05@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 60 3 5
4379 S19E11@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 037 S17E09@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 10 1 1
4380 S21E22@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 038 S21E21@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 40 15 5
4381 N08E39@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 039 N07E33@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 95 35 15
4383 N15W26@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 041 N14W30@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 10 1 1
4384 N10E64@2026-03-03 04:30 UTC 042 N10E58@2026-03-03 06:38 UTC 99 40 15

Date and time of observation: 2026-03-02 06:48 UTC
Issued: 2026-03-02 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 5
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 106
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
99 35 15

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N16E18@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 036 N15E18@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 55 25 5
4379 S19E25@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 037 S18E23@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 10 1 1
4380 S21E32@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 038 S21E35@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 55 25 5
4381 N08E52@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 039 N07E46@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 99 35 15
4382 N22W51@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 040 N22W48@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 5 1 1
4383 N15W13@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 041 N13W14@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 10 1 1
4384 N10E72@2026-03-02 04:30 UTC 042 N10E74@2026-03-02 06:48 UTC 99 35 15

Date and time of observation: 2026-03-01 08:00 UTC
Issued: 2026-03-01 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 1
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 70
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
90 35 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N17E36@2026-03-01 04:30 UTC 036 N15E30@2026-03-01 08:00 UTC 55 25 5
4380 S21E46@2026-03-01 04:30 UTC 038 S11E48@2026-03-01 08:00 UTC 75 35 10
4381 N07E66@2026-03-01 04:30 UTC 039 N06E58@2026-03-01 08:00 UTC 70 30 10
- -@- UTC 040 N21W39@2026-03-01 08:00 UTC 10 1 1
- -@- UTC 041 N13W03@2026-03-01 08:00 UTC 10 1 1

Date and time of observation: 2026-02-28 06:55 UTC
Issued: 2026-02-28 17:00 UTC
Observer: Karolina Knesplova
Seeing conditions: 5
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 53
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
80 35 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N17E48@2026-02-28 04:30 UTC 036 N16E43@2026-02-28 06:55 UTC 60 30 5
4379 S17E47@2026-02-28 04:30 UTC 037 S16E44@2026-02-28 06:55 UTC 20 5 1
4380 S20E57@2026-02-28 04:30 UTC 038 S21E62@2026-02-28 06:55 UTC 70 35 10
4381 N08E74@2026-02-28 04:30 UTC 039 N07E73@2026-02-28 06:55 UTC 30 5 1

Date and time of observation: 2026-02-27 06:43 UTC
Issued: 2026-02-27 17:00 UTC
Observer: Vlastislav Feik
Seeing conditions: 4
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 41
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
85 45 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N16E62@2026-02-27 04:30 UTC 036 N16E57@2026-02-27 06:43 UTC 30 5 1
4379 S17E61@2026-02-27 04:30 UTC 037 S16E57@2026-02-27 06:43 UTC 55 25 10
4380 S20E71@2026-02-27 04:30 UTC 038 S20E75@2026-02-27 06:43 UTC 75 35 15

Date and time of observation: 2026-02-26 06:45 UTC
Issued: 2026-02-26 17:00 UTC
Observer: Vlastislav Feik
Seeing conditions: 3
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 40
Activity level: low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
85 45 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
4378 N17E70@2026-02-26 08:30 UTC 036 N16E71@2026-02-26 06:45 UTC 30 5 1
4379 S16E69@2026-02-26 08:30 UTC 037 S16E71@2026-02-26 06:45 UTC 30 5 1
- -@- UTC 038 S20E85@2026-02-26 06:45 UTC 75 45 15

Date and time of observation: 2026-02-25 06:47 UTC
Issued: 2026-02-25 17:00 UTC
Observer: Vlastislav Feik
Seeing conditions: 4
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 11
Activity level: very low to low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
75 45 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
- -@- UTC 036 N15E82@2026-02-25 06:47 UTC 30 5 1

Date and time of observation: 2026-02-24 07:53 UTC
Issued: 2026-02-24 17:00 UTC
Observer: Vlastislav Feik
Seeing conditions: 3
Analyzed data: Ondrejov Observatory
Relative sunspot number: 0
Activity level: very low to low

FULL DISK

C % M % X %
75 35 10

ACTIVE REGIONS

NOAA NUMBER NOAA LOCATION ONDREJOV NUMBER ONDREJOV LOCATION C % M % X %
- -@- UTC - --@2026-02-24 07:53 UTC - - -